MLB best bets: Giants vs. Phillies pick, odds, predictions for Friday 5/3

Giants vs. Phillies Odds

Friday, May 3, 6:40 p.m. ET, Apple TV+

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

San Francisco Giants

The Giants took a big risk when they signed relief pitcher Jordan Hicks to a big contract this offseason with the plan of converting him to a starting pitcher. It looks like a very wise investment so far, as Hicks has a 1.59 ERA through six starts this season.

Hicks has allowed more than one run just once all season and has 21 strikeouts to just 18 hits allowed. His 2.49 xERA shows that he has truly been every bit as elite and he’s appeared.

As a reliever, Hicks relied on his 100 mph sinker. While it was nearly unhittable, he did have issues with control. As he moved to the starting rotation, Hicks dropped his sinker velocity down to 95.6 mph, but that dropped his walk rate from 11.2% down to 7.7%. The change in velocity also hasn’t affected his ground-ball rate at all.

San Francisco’s offense really lacks star power, however. I’m not sure how many players a casual baseball fan could name on this team off the top of their head. While they have had success with that formula in the past, they have failed to be as scrappy as in other years.

This below-average offense is just 20th in runs and doesn’t have a single player with more than five home runs. Mike Yastrzemski has been crushing the ball over the last two weeks and they’ll need him to keep that up.

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Philadelphia Phillies

After a disastrous first start against Atlanta, Aaron Nola has settled in nicely with a 2.06 ERA over his last five starts. Nola has been eating up innings, pitching into the eighth frame in each of his last three starts.

On the season, Nola has a 3.20 ERA and 3.85 xERA. One concern for Nola is that his strikeout rate is down a bit. He has just an 8.24 K/9 rate after reaching 9.39 last season and 10.32 the year before. However, over his last three starts, he has punched out nine, seven and 10 hitters and looks more like himself.

Nola’s calling card is his knuckle curve, which opponents have more than a 30% Whiff rate against — and his sinker has been terrific as well. He has upped his sinker usage to help cut down on walks and has allowed just one free pass in each of his last three starts.

When you look at the talent in Philadelphia’s lineup, it’s no surprise the Phillies rank near the top in most offensive categories. The Phillies rank fifth in wOBA and have hit the third most home runs.

For a lineup featuring Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto, it might come as a bit of a surprise that Alec Bohm has been the team’s best hitter. He’s been one of the best hitters in the entire league.

Bohm is batting .362 with a 1.018 OPS on the year. Over the last two weeks, he has a scorching .500 average (27-for-54) with a 1.358 OPS. Bohm ranks third in the league in wOBA and fourth in WAR. He has the second-highest batting average and is second in RBI. Over the last two weeks, he leads the league in hits, extra-base hits, RBI, average and OPS.

Giants vs. Phillies

Betting Pick & Prediction

As good as Hicks has looked this season, Nola is still likely the better pitcher throughout a full season. Nola has upped his strikeout rate over the last few starts and has done a better job limiting walks.

Over his career, Nola has consistently been significantly better at Citizens Bank Park compared to on the road. He has a career 4.20 ERA and 9.3 K/9 rate on the road but a 3.22 ERA and 10.7 K/9 rate at The Bank.

On paper, the Phillies were expected to have one of the league’s most talented bullpens, but they have been horrendous so far this season. Luckily for them, the Giants have been worse. Philly ranks 26th in reliever ERA, while San Francisco ranks 29th.

I do expect this Phillies bullpen to turn things around. They rank ninth in xFIP while the Giants sit 15th. Philadelphia is coming off a day off so it will be at full strength. San Francisco was forced to use all its best arms yesterday with Ryan Walker, Tyler Rogers and Camilo Doval all pitching Thursday.

Philadelphia has the advantage in starting pitchers (especially at home), it has the more talented bullpen and it has a significant edge at the plate. Play the Phillies at -145 or better Friday.

Pick: Phillies ML (-142)